No,
sorry. This article is not attempting to predict that
gold could reach such unimaginable heights anytime soon.
On the other hand, that figure represents exactly what
it would take for the US government to suddenly impose a
full fledged gold standard.
The calculation is simple, except for the fact that
you're dealing with a mind-frazzling amount of zeros
here. You don't need historical data, price trends,
policy moves, or complicated econometric models to
figure this out. I suppose somebody has already done
this calculation and written about it somewhere, but I
just haven't seen it yet. So, let's go through it again.
There reportedly are about eight to nine trillion
dollars circulating inside the domestic US economy.
Let's take the conservative position and say it's "only"
eight trillion. (The web site of the New York Fed shows
that the figures for M3 in 2001 were $7.8 trillion
dollars, so you know we are at the low end of the
spectrum here.)
Another estimated eight to nine trillion are in
circulation outside US borders (held in international
central bank reserves or circulating as trade dollars,
savings, or investment dollars). Take the low figure
again and add: you get a total, conservative, estimate
of sixteen trillion dollars in world-wide use. That's
both in the form of physical cash and computer blips
(electronic accounting entries).
If you take that ridiculous sixteen trillion dollar
figure and divide the supposedly existing 256 million
ounces of gold in the US national gold stock by it,
(there are approximately 32,000 ounces in a tonne;
multiply by 8,000 tonnes, and you get 256 million
ounces) , you discover that one dollar would buy exactly
0.000016 ounces of gold. Looked at the other way, you
get a mind-boggling, shockingly ridiculous,
nose-bleeding dollar-gold exchange price of $160,000 per
ounce.
Yes, that is the what the price of gold would have to be
if the US government suddenly decided to cover every
single existing dollar with the existing US gold stock.
And don't even talk about the very real possibility that
much of those 8,000 tons may not be there anymore as a
result of decade-long, surreptitious gold-price
manipulation by our political and financial elites.
Let's just work with the easy, round figures for now.
This dollar-to-gold convertibility price shows us two
things: (1) the utterly insane, brain function-crashing
level of US monetary inflation over the past seventy
years, and (2) the absolute impossibility of suddenly
returning to a full gold standard by legislative decree.
Just imagine what would happen if this legislation was
suddenly passed:
With gold suddenly at $160,000 an ounce, not a single
piece of gold jewelry would stay in its treasure chest
at home. Everything gold that anyone could find,
anywhere, would be melted into bullion by individuals
trying to make a humongous quick buck. People who
yesterday bought gold at below $400 an ounce would turn
and run to the nearest bank and turn their investment
into a whopping 400 times the amount they paid for it!
That's like buying an ounce for a buck and selling it
for four-hundred. (My little solar-powered, hand-held
calculator just started laughing at me when I took it
through these calculations, and then refused to
cooperate further. So, if you want to know how many
percent of a profit that would be, you'll have to do it
yourself.)
Given the fact that in 2001, only half a trillion of
those 7.8 trillion dollars existed in physical cash form
in the US, it can easily be seen that this mad dash of
lucky gold owners to convert their holdings to dollars
would ruin any bank anywhere in the US. Cash would
become more rare than gold, and all of the gold would
end up in bank vaults almost over night.
Nobody with cash in their pockets would dream of buying
gold. Jewelers would go broke and have to close their
shops instantly for lack of demand at such outrageous
prices. City folk would buy pick axes and shovels and
dig up the entire countryside in search for gold -
anywhere, at whatever cost.
People with even an ounce of adventurer's spirit or
gambling instinct would no longer be able to focus on
their jobs while working. The whole country would lapse
into a gold-fever epidemic of unprecedented scope. The
old gold rushes of the days of the settlers would look
like child's play. Pandemonium would reign supreme
across the nation.
And that's just the domestic situation.
Internationally, if you were from, say Denmark, and you
just bought an ounce of gold for $395 or so last week,
and today you read in the newspaper that the US went of
a full gold standard overnight, and US banks were forced
by law to pay everyone $160,000 per ounce, would you
sacrifice a few hundred bucks in your own currency to
buy a plane ticket to New York or Miami so you could get
that amount of dollars for your gold?
On the other hand, do you think anyone who has that
much, ($160,000 or more) in cash, would they want to
take it to their bank and buy an ounce of gold? Nope.
Don't think so.
So what would happen world-wide? The demand for gold
would go to almost zero at those prices, and the demand
for hard, cold dollar cash would develop escape velocity
inside half a second, because a dollar, even after
seeing its FOREX value fall for over 30 percent since
January 2002, still buys an awful lot in the world - and
160,000 of them buy a whole lot more than that. So,
don't think Congress will pass that law anytime soon.
Depressing, huh? Does this mean we won't ever have
honest money anymore?
No, it
doesn't. Not really. While apparently proving that a
legislatively imposed national return to the gold
standard would be an impossibility, this little exercise
in futility proves three things beyond any reasonable
doubt:
- how
cheap "money" actually has become, relative to gold,
- how,
at least in theory, fiat should be valued relative to
gold - by virtue of the sheer amounts of it floating
around out there, and
- the
reason why the money powers want you to believe that
gold is such a "worthless", "non-performing" asset
that has outlived its usefulness in modern times.
If you
did not believe that ruse, you would naturally want to
do exactly what we have just now done in this essay:
compare the amount of money to the amount of gold
available, and ask some serious questions when you come
across data like this.
On the other hand, if you are totally used to "valuing"
things only in terms of fiat, you will be content with
the deceptive market information this fiat use gives
you. You'll only care how many dollars you get for
something, or how many you need in order to pay for
something - exactly how we all have lived our entire
lives so far.
But as soon as you know how little gold you would get
for that same amount of money if there was a gold
standard in our day and age, you also know how cheap
your money has become - and how near-absolutely
worthless that paper bill you carry in your wallet
really is.
It also gives you one damn good reason to buy gold now,
while it still costs only $400 an ounce.
Also, witness the money establishment's obvious
definition of the word "performing." To the money
powers, an asset only "performs" if it inflates, i.e.,
if you can make more out of it than it currently is.
But, more of what exactly?
More worthless paper money.
Naturally, if you believe that gold is outdated and
"worthless" you'll consider more paper money to be a
"gain." If you think that way (and most people do) you
will never know how much you have actually lost, and
continue to lose, in terms of real value.
At the same time, this exercise in futility we just went
through together proves another thing beyond any
reasonable doubt: it proves how good a store of value
gold really is!
And that is the best way to demonstrate why the world
outside the US is currently moving toward a monetary
system using gold as a currency's true measure of value.
It is a system that, even if it does not return us to
the days of the gold standard anytime soon, it at least
recognizes that gold has this capacity. It is a system
that is designed to allow all fiat currencies to slowly
depreciate against gold until a true gold-fiat market
equilibrium is found.
And, guess what you get when that point in time arrives,
when a market-equilibrium price of gold in terms of fiat
is found?
You get an automatic gold standard!
Yes. Let that sink in for a moment.
If and when the world's currencies find their true
market equilibrium against gold, at such a time
returning to a gold standard will not only be possible,
it will be automatic. It will already have been
accomplished. For, what is the real difference between
the situation that existed in the days of the classical
gold standard and this future time of a market price
equilibrium?
For all practical purposes - none.
The only difference will be that in the days of yore,
governments set the price of paper relative to gold by
legislative decree, while at such a future time as we
are talking about, the free market will have done it -
without any government interference whatsoever.
And that is how it should be, is it not? On top of that,
we have just seen what approximate neighborhood such
gold equilibrium prices will likely be in.
It will be a great neighborhood to live in ..... IF you
own gold!
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