Measurements
of ancient air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice offers
evidence that humans have been changing the global
climate since thousands of years before the industrial
revolution.
From 8000 years ago, atmospheric
levels of carbon dioxide began to rise as humans started
clearing forests, planting crops and raising livestock,
a scientist said on Tuesday. Methane levels started
increasing 3000 years later.
The combined increases of the two
greenhouse gases implicated in global warming were slow
but steady and staved off what should have been a period
of significant natural cooling, said Bill Ruddiman,
emeritus professor at the University of Virginia.
The changes also disrupted regular
patterns that dominated the 400,000 years of atmospheric
history that scientists have teased from samples of
ancient ice.
"You have 395,000 years of history,
which sets some rules, and 5000 years that break those
rules," Professor Ruddiman said.
He briefed reporters on his theory at
the autumn meeting of the American Geophysical Union on
Tuesday. Further details appear in the December issue of
the journal Climatic Change.
Previously, scientists assumed widely
it was only with the onset of the factory age that human
activity had any significant effect on the global
climate. The prehistoric changes in carbon dioxide and
methane levels have been noted before but were
attributed to natural causes, Professor Ruddiman said.
"It's a great new idea we need to talk
about and evaluate," said Bette Otto-Bliesner, a
paleoclimate expert at the National Centre for
Atmospheric Research, who was not connected with the
research.
Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide
and methane naturally fluctuate, in part because of
changes in the orbit of the Earth and the resulting
variations in the amounts of sunlight.
But human activity apparently thwarted
expected decreases in the atmospheric concentrations of
both gases.
Leading the change was the
revolutionary adoption, across both Europe and Asia, of
agriculture and animal husbandry, Professor Ruddiman
said.
Analysis of air trapped in ice cores
drilled from the Antarctic ice sheet show anomalous
increases in carbon dioxide levels beginning 8000 years
ago - just as crop lands began to replace previously
forested regions across Asia and Europe.
About 5000 years ago, the ice cores
reflect a similarly anomalous rise in methane levels,
this time tied to increased emissions from flooded rice
fields, as well as burgeoning numbers of livestock,
Professor Ruddiman said.
The prehistoric practices apparently
overrode a build-up of ice that models predict should
have occurred from 5000 years ago.
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