A
report by the U.S. Institute for Peace, which has close
ties with Congress, says the U.S. may attack Iran and
Syria next, in what they call "Phase 3 on the War on
Terror." They think this will be even harder than going
into Afghanistan and Iraq, because both populations are
more committed to their governments. Israeli
intelligence insists that Iran has nuclear weapons—but
no one in Europe believes them.
We'd have to invade those countries, because, the
report states, "Limited bombing would almost certainly
fail to disrupt the terrorist infrastructure
significantly. There is simply too little to bomb. As
the U.S. cruise missile attacks on Sudan and Afghanistan
in 1998 demonstrated, limited attacks usually have a
negligible effect on terrorists and can even lead to
their lionization. Putting boots on the ground is
necessary to root out terrorists, and even then they are
more likely to be displaced than destroyed.
"For Iran, the number of forces needed to occupy
Iranian territory would dwarf those required for the
Iraq campaign, given the country's large size and the
probable hostility of the population," writes analyst
Daniel Byman in the report. "The military effort in
Syria could be far less massive, but here too occupation
would be difficult given the nationalism of the Syrian
people.
"Although the clerical regime in Teheran is
unpopular, and the Baath regime in Damascus is widely
scorned, they are not universally loathed as was
Hussein's regime. Moreover, both countries' populations
are highly nationalistic and are likely to unite behind
their government in the event of a crisis. U.S. pressure
might strengthen the hands of the regimes we oppose."
Iran and Syria would might use Hizbullah against U.S.
interests in the Middle East, and these terrorists are
considered to be even more dangerous than al-Qaeda. They
would probably also try to stage an attack on U.S. soil.
This would mean we would have to invade Lebanon as well,
since that's where they’re deployed.
"To have any chance of success, a military effort
would require a sustained counter-insurgency effort in
Lebanon," according to the report. "Israel has tried a
military solution to the Hizbullah problem for 20 years,
but its efforts only made the group stronger,
strengthening its resolve and increasing its political
appeal to many Lebanese. Meanwhile, Hizbullah would
activate its cells in Asia, Europe, and Latin America—
and probably unknown cells in the United States—to
strike at Americans worldwide."
Because of this, the report does not advise more
military action and points out that we have changed the
policies of both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia toward
al-Qaeda without using military weapons.
The report says, "The right combination of carrots
and sticks would lead [Syria] to crack down on Hizbullah,
pushing it to become a relatively tame Lebanese
political organization. Pressure on Iran, while less
effective, would also help cut Hizbullah's global
network and might make it more prone to focus its
efforts on Lebanese politics, not anti-American jihad.
For both countries, pressure should also include demands
that Hizbullah halt its efforts to arm and train
Palestinian groups."
Now that we've captured Saddam, we may be able to
coerce him into telling us where he’s hidden his weapons
of mass destruction—if he has any. Israeli intelligence
is being blamed for inaccurately assessing Iraq’s WMDs,
which is one reason we invaded Iraq in the first place.
This has damaged their credibility and is causing
Western nations to ignore their latest warnings about
atomic weapons in Iran.
Over the years, Israel has developed extensive
intelligence sources in the Middle East, which Western
countries, with few Middle Eastern resources of their
own, have had to rely on. Before the war, Israel claimed
that Iraq was capable of attacking them with
medium-range missiles carrying biological or chemical
warheads. A new report by the Jaffee Center for
Strategic Studies says, "Foreign intelligence services
might stop trusting intelligence received from Israel,
and foreign countries might suspect that Israel is
giving them false intelligence in order to influence
their political positions…Such suspicions, for example,
could harm Israel's efforts to convince others that the
intelligence on Iran's nuclear project is solid, despite
the fact that the case of Iran is different from that of
Iraq in that Israel's assessments in this regard are
based on good, solid information."